QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 25 ARLP025
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA June 21, 1996
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP025
ARLP025 Propagation de KT7H
Last week's bulletin gave the dates for solar data at the end of the report as June 6 through 13. The data was only through June 12.
We just had 5 days of zero sunspots. Look for more periods of no visible sunspots as we move through the solar cycle minimum. The most disturbed period was around 0300z on June 19 when the K index was five. The Boulder A index for that day was 15.
Solar flux is expected to stay below 70 until the end of June, then peak just above 70 around July 2 and 3, moving again below 70 after July 5.
For Field Day weekend look for more quiet conditions, with solar flux just below 70 and quiet geomagnetic conditions.
Sunspot Numbers for June 13 through 19 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12 and 24, with a mean of 5.1. 10.7 cm flux was 68.1, 67.7, 67.3, 66.9, 67.4, 67.7, and 68.5, with a mean of 67.7.
Here are some path projections for Field Day weekend:
>From the Eastern USA to mid-USA, 80 meters should be open from 2230 to 1300z, with strongest signals at 0200 to 0300z and around 0930z. 40 meters should be open around the clock, with strongest signals from 0200 to 0900z. The best bet for 20 meters is around 1400 to 1500z and 2100 to 2200z.
The path between Eastern USA and the West Coast should be open on 80 meters from 0230 to 1030z, and 40 meters from 0100 to 1230z, with best signals from 0400 to 0930z. There is a good chance for a 20 meter opening from 1700 to 0430z. 15 meters could also open around 0230z.
>From the West Coast to mid-USA check 80 meters from 0215 to 1230z, with best propagation from 0500 to 1030z. 40 meters may be open continuously, with the weak period from 1700 to 2200z and the best period around 0300 to 1100z. 20 meters should be best from 1200 to 1630z and 2200 to 0800z. There is a small chance of a 15 meter opening from 1900 to 0500z, but starting much later for more northern paths.