ARLP052 Propagation de KT7H: December 13, 1996

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA December 13, 1996
To all radio amateurs

ARLP052 Propagation de KT7H

Solar flux has still been moving off of the recent flurry of activity caused by region 7999. More activity wasn't expected until this region returned and solar flux rose after December 17, but it looks as if we are seeing increased activity a bit early as the flux rises in the past couple of days.

Average sunspot numbers were down about 8 points compared to last week, solar flux was down over 11 points, and the average A index was up about 1.7 points.

The projection from NOAA SESC from a few days ago says the flux should rise again and peak around 94 right around Christmas, and geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet.

Paul 5X4F/5Z4FO writes this week about 10 meter openings from Arua in the northwest corner of Uganda.

''I have had two 10 meter openings into the US from here since July 1995. The first was 30 Oct. 1995 when 24 East Coast stations were worked between 1744 and 1832 UTC. The second one was during the CQWW CW contest on 24 Nov. 1996 when 17 East Coast stations were worked between 1447 and 1535 UTC. The last opening corresponds to the high solar activity on that day.''

Paul mentions the ARRL 10 meter contest coming this weekend, and says that he made 53 contacts in the 1994 contest and 95 in 1995.

NS0B wrote this week that he believes the solar minimum as already occurred, based upon his analysis of moving averages of solar flux and sunspot number. He does a smoothed 365 day running average and says that the solar flux bottomed out between May 15 and 23, and has been rising since, while the bottom for sunspot numbers is during the same period around May 19. Based on this observation he says that the recent solar cycle has been one of the shorter ones at 9 years, 8 months.

Sunspot Numbers for December 5 through 11 were 0, 0, 12, 13, 20, 17 and 31, with a mean of 13.3. 10.7 cm flux was 69.6, 69.7, 69.2, 68.6, 73.7, 72.4 and 77.6, with a mean of 71.5. Planetary A indices for the same period were 2, 1, 4, 3, 7, 18, and 10, with a mean of 6.4.