QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46 ARLP046
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA November 14, 1997
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP046 ARLP046 Propagation de K7VVV
Last week's major geomagnetic storm was really confined to Friday, when the global A index went clear to 45, and global K indices went as high as seven. This was from the Tuesday, November 4 solar flare, and the later flare on Thursday didn't seem to have an effect, indicating that the energy was probably aimed away from Earth. Protons from these disturbances produce an effect a few days later, and the Thursday event didn't seem to bother conditions over the weekend. On Saturday the global K index dropped down to zero.
Solar flux backed off also, and was soon below 90. It perked up again to the low nineties on Tuesday. Watch for solar flux to rise to 92 or 94 this weekend, then above 100 around November 26, above 110 by month's end, and below 100 by December 4. Unstable geomagnetic conditions may return around November 20-23 and December 3 and 4. This is based on the last solar rotation, and can change at any time. For instance, the last 27 day outlook from NOAA released on November 11 showed flux values around 80 from November 14-20, but then new regions 8106, 8107 and 8108 appeared on the solar surface, and now forecasts are looking up.
Expect good conditions during the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes this weekend.
Sunspot Numbers for November 6 through 12 were 60, 60, 61, 40, 28, 28 and 26 with a mean of 43.3. 10.7 cm flux was 105.3, 94.4, 89.6, 86.4, 89.4, 91.5 and 87.2, with a mean of 92, and estimated planetary A indices were 12, 45, 4, 9, 10, 6, and 3, with a mean of 12.7.
Here are some projections for domestic paths for the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes this weekend: