QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 17 ARLP017
From Lee Wical, KH6BZF
Kane'Ohe, HI April 24, 1998
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP017
ARLP017 Propagation de KH6BZF
Solar activity continues it's downward trend this week with the possiblity of a 27.5 day cyclic bottom in the mid to high 80's centered around the 26 to 27th of April. Average sunspot numbers were down this week from last week's report, and the average solar flux was down to a daily mean of 100.6.
Wednesday's Solar Flux at 2000UTC was 87.6. The Solar Flux peaked this month on the April 8th at 140.6 level at 2000UTC. The previous high level in this rotational sub cycle was on March 15th of this year, at 141.8 at 1700UTC.
Solar flux for this weekend, Friday through Sunday, is forecast at the mid to high 80's with the return to the East limb of the visable disk of several previously active regions. Look for some DX activity on 10, 12 and 15 meters.
Next week look for flux values to drift slightly upward from mid to upper 90's. Look for some unsettled conditions centered around April 24th and again around May 8th. One cannot predict a solar pertubations or sudden active occurances. But, always "expect the unexpected, and expect the expected".
Now that the solar activity is slightly lower that in early April, 10 meters should be opening for a shorter period with fair north south paths and an occasional north south, possibly on 6 meters as well. Check 10 meters at 10AM local time, as I always say, "check 10 at 10".