ARLP019 Propagation de K7VVV:
May 7, 1999

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19 ARLP019
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA May 7, 1999
To all radio amateurs

ARLP019 Propagation de K7VVV

Solar flux was up this week, averaging 27 points higher than the week before. Sunspot number averages grew from 74 to 106.6. Predicted solar flux for this weekend is 145, 145 and 140 for Friday though Sunday, with planetary A indices of 15, 12 and 10 for the same days. Beyond the weekend, unless new sunspots come into view, solar flux will probably drift back to below 130 after May 10, then below 120 after the middle of the month. Look for return of geomagnetic storms around May 25 through 28.

Sunspot Numbers for April 29 through May 5 were 98, 80, 92, 136, 95, 100 and 145 with a mean of 106.6. 10.7 cm flux was 122.1, 123.5, 105.4, 135.7, 127.1, 138.7 and 140.9, with a mean of 127.6, and estimated planetary A indices were 19, 21, 19, 13, 9, 6 and 7, with a mean of 13.4.

The path projection for this week is from the center of the continental USA. We have now come full circle, back to where the path projections began in ARLP009. Next week the beginning point of the projections will be New York City, just as it was in ARLP010, followed by Atlanta. The times mentioned for each band are good bets for working the target locations. Although many stations will have propagation outside of these times, during the times given the chances of working someone with strong signals in the target area is very good, assuming they are listening. The projections assume modest stations, with a dipoles on 80, 40 and 30, and a yagi on 20 meters and above.