November 5, 1999

ZCZC AP45

QST de W1AW

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45 ARLP045

From Tad Cook, K7VVV

Seattle, WA November 5, 1999

To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP045

ARLP045 Propagation de K7VVV

Average solar flux was down, and sunspot numbers were up this past week. This is because solar flux peaked at 197.3 on October 27, and the high sunspot values were on October 26, 28 and 29, when they were 200, 214 and 217. Since the reporting week for this bulletin began on October 28, this made some funny averages.

At least over the past week geomagnetic disturbances had died down. Planetary K indices over the past few days have often been 1 or 2, and even 0 on November 3.

Solar flux should rise over the next few days, with the Friday through Sunday values at 150, 155 and 165. Planetary A indices for those days are predicted to be 7, 7 and 15, and the mid-latitude, or Fredericksburg A indices are predicted to be 5, 10 and 15. So for the ARRL CW Sweepstakes this weekend conditions could start to get a little rough on Sunday. Geomagnetic indices may remain high through the week, and solar flux may peak on the following weekend around 190 or 200. Another peak in solar flux may return around November 23 or 24.

Sunspot numbers for October 28 through November 3 were 196, 214, 217, 194, 178, 124 and 117 with a mean of 177.1. 10.7 cm flux was 183.9, 179.6, 169.4, 160.4, 150.6, 142.8 and 143.1, with a mean of 161.4, and estimated planetary A indices were 16, 10, 7, 10, 10, 6 and 5, with a mean of 9.1.

Path projections are for this weekend's ARRL CW Sweepstakes Contest.

**From the Pacific Northwest to Southern California**, 80 meters open all hours, best 0130-0330z, weakest 1930-2000z, 40 meters best 0130-1430z, weakest 1930-2000z, 20 meters 1530-0230z, 15 meters 1700-2330z, 10 meters possibly open 1900-2300z.**To Hawaii**, 80 meters 0300-1530z, 40 meters 0130-1730z, 20 meters 1600-0430z, 15 meters 1730-0130z, 10 meters 1830-0000z.**To Alaska**, 80 meters 2300-1800z (best 0330-1400z), 40 meters open all hours, best 0300-1430z, 20 meters 1630-0400z, 15 meters 1800-0100z, 10 meters 2000-2230z.**To VE8**, 80 meters open all hours, best 0130-0230z, weakest 1800-2130z, 40 meters open all hours, best 2330-1600z, weakest 1830-2100z, 20 meters 1630-0130z, 15 meters 1830-2230z, 10 meters possibly 1800-2300z.**To Northeast states**, 80 meters 2300-1230z, 40 meters open all hours, best 0130-1100z, weakest 1600-2000z, 20 meters 1500-0000z, 15 meters 1700-2100z, 10 meters possibly 1800-2030z.**To Southeast states**, 80 meters 2300-1330z, 40 meters open all hours, best 0130-1130z, weakest 1730-1930z, 20 meters 1300-0400z, 15 meters 1430-0100z, 10 meters 1530-2300z.**To the central states**, 80 meters 2300-1500z, 40 meters open all hours, best 0130-1230z, weakest 1730-2030z, 20 meters 1430-0230z, 15 meters 1600-2330z, 10 meters 1830-2100z.**From Hawaii to Southern California**, 80 meters 0300-1500z, 40 meters 0130-1630z, 20 meters 1600-0700z, 15 meters 1730-0230z, 10 meters 1830-0030z.**To Alaska**, 80 meters 0330-1630z, 40 meters 0230-1800z, 20 meters 1730-0530z, 15 meters 1900-0230z, 10 meters 2100-0030z.**To VE8**, 80 meters 0330-1530z, 40 meters 0200-1700z, 20 meters 1600-0430z, 15 meters 1730-0130z, 10 meters 1900-2330z.**To Northeast states**, 80 meters 0300-1230z, 40 meters 0230-1300z, 20 meters around 1300z, around 1630z and 2300-0130z 15 meters 1700-2300 z, 10 meters 1800-2100z.**To Southeast states**, 80 meters 0300- 1330z, 40 meters 0200-1430z, 20 meters 2330-1330z, 15 meters 1600-0200z, 10 meters 1700-0000z.**To the Central states**, 80 meters 0330-1400z, 40 meters 0200-1500z, 20 meters open all hours, best 0400-1100z, weakest 1900-2200z, 15 meters 1630-0200z, 10 meters 1730-0000z.**From Alaska to Southern California**, 80 meters 0100-1500z, 40 meters 2200-1800z, 20 meters 1730-0330z, 15 meters 1930-0030z.**To VE8**, 80 meters open all hours, strongest 0130-0300z and 1430-1500z, weakest 1900-2200z, 40 meters open all hours, strongest 2300-0100z and 1600-1700z, 20 meters 1800-0200z.**To Northeast states**, 80 meters 2300-1300z, 40 meters 2100-1430z, 20 meters 1500-0100z, 15 meters 1800-2130z.**To Southeast states**, 80 meters 2330-1300z, 40 meters 2230-1430z, 20 meters 1500-1600z and 1730-0200z, 15 meters 1730-2330z, 10 meters 2000-2130z.**To the Central states**, 80 meters 0000-1430z, 40 meters 2100-1600z, 20 meters 1700-0200z, 15 meters 1900-2300z.**From VE8 to Northeast states**, 80 meters 2130-1330z, 40 meters open all hours, strongest 0000-1130z, 20 meters 1600-0130z, 15 meters 1500-2230z, 10 meters 1630-2030z.**To Southeast states**, 80 meters 2230-1300z, 40 meters 1930-1500z, 20 meters 1530-0030z, 15 meters 1730-2130z.**To central states**, 80 meters 2230-1500z, 40 meters open all hours, best 0030-1230z, 20 meters 1430-0200z, 15 meters 1530-2330z, 10 meters 1700-2130z.**To Southern California**, 80 meters 0000-1500z, 40 meters open all hours, strongest 0200-1330z, 20 meters 1430-0330z, 15 meters 1600-0130z, 10 meters 1730-2330z.**From Northeast states to Southeast states**, 80 meters open all hours, best 2300-0030z, 40 meters open all hours, best 2330-1100z, 20 meters 1400-2130z.**To central states**, 80 meters 2130-1330z, 40 meters 0000-1100z, 20 meters 1330-0330z, 15 meters 1500-2130z, 10 meters 1730-1900z.**To Southern California**, 80 meters 2300-1230z, 40 meters 2200-1500z, 20 meters 1400-0030z, 15 meters 1530-2130z.**From Southeast states to central states**, 80 meters 2000-1530z, 40 meters open all hours, strongest 2330-1230z, 20 meters 1400-0000z, 15 meters 1600-2100z.**To Southern California**, 80 meters 2300-1330z, 40 meters open all hours, best 0130-1200z, weakest 1730-1930, 20 meters open all hours, strongest 0030-0530z, 15 meters 1400-0130z, 10 meters 1500-2330z.**From Central states to Southern California**, 80 meters 2130-1630z, 40 meters open all hours, strongest 0100z, 20 meters 1430-0230z, 15 meters 1530-2330z, 10 meters 1730-2100z.