QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA November 25, 1999
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de K7VVV
This week's bulletin is out a day and a half early because of the Thanksgiving holiday and because ARRL headquarters will be closed on Friday. Your bulletin editor and W1AW staff also wanted to be sure to get this out before the CQ Worldwide CW DX Contest this weekend.
To recap the last week, average solar flux and sunspot numbers were down from the previous week, but geomagnetic indices were also quieter. While solar flux should decline through the weekend, at least geomagnetic conditions should be stable. Predicted solar flux for the period from November 25 through December 1 is 185, 180, 175, 165, 160, 150 and 150. The planetary A index for the same period is predicted at 10, 10, 8, 8, 10, 10 and 20. The latest prediction has the solar flux rising again and peaking around 230 on December 9. Keep in mind that predictions beyond the first three days are less certain, and of course at any time new activity could raise the numbers.
Sunspot numbers for November 18 through 24 were 194, 234, 225, 200, 179, 157 and 109 with a mean of 185.4. 10.7 cm flux was 217.9, 210, 204.3, 210.1, 192, 185.6 and 186.7, with a mean of 200.9, and estimated planetary A indices were 12, 12, 9, 10, 10, 15 and 19, with a mean of 12.4.
The path projection for this weekend is for the DX contest, and is from the center of the contiguous 48 United States.