QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6 ARLP006
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA February 9, 2001
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP006
ARLP006 Propagation de K7VVV
Average daily sunspot numbers were up almost ten points and solar flux was up about one point for the past week, when compared to the previous week. This seems to be a period of quiet sun, and the trend is expected to continue. Projected average daily solar flux for the next 45 days is expected to be about 163, and this is in line with current daily values.
Solar flux peaked at 170 on Tuesday, and is expected to drop over the next few days. Projected flux values for Friday through Monday, February 12, are 155 for Friday, and 150 for the next three days. Flux values are expected to meander between 155 and 165 until February 21-24, when they are expected to rise to 170 again. Another peak just above these values is expected around March 7, although it is really too early to tell.
Even with a quiet sun, there have been some unsettled geomagnetic conditions, but no real geomagnetic storms. February 6 was a bit unsettled, but the planetary K index only briefly reached 4. The planetary A index for the day was 11, which was also the mid-latitude A index. The projected planetary A index for the near term is mostly in the single digits. A forecast received today from the Solar Department of the Astronomical Institute in Ondrejov, Czech Republic shows quiet conditions on February 11, 14 and 15, and quiet to unsettled conditions on February 9, 10, 12 and 13.
Here are some path projections for propagation this weekend from somewhere near the center of the continental United States, actually just northwest of Lebanon, Kansas.
Sunspot numbers for February 1 through 7 were 141, 109, 149, 164, 157, 161 and 163 with a mean of 149.1. 10.7 cm flux was 160.9, 166.3, 163.6, 164, 165.3, 170 and 164, with a mean of 164.9, and estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 2, 2, 3, 11 and 5 with a mean of 5.