QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16 ARLP016
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA April 19, 1996
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de KT7H
Solar flux remained low last week, but the geomagnetic field was quite active, making conditions lousy. There were several more days of no sunspots, but frequent periods with a K index of four and five increased absorption of radio waves.
When conditions stabilize in the next few days look for 30 and 40 meters to provide the best chance of worldwide DX. After April 24 the K and A indices should be quite low again, and though there won't be much ionizing radiation from the Sun, at least conditions will be stable. Look for a return to unstable periods after May 10. Solar flux should stay around 70 or lower, falling into the high sixties after April 26.
KE7QJ asked about the 199 solar flux figure forecast for August, 2000 and mentioned in ARLP014. This is a projected average for the month, and it is also a guess based upon previous solar cycles. We hope that peak levels in the Summer and Fall of that year will be higher on some days.
Questions about this topic or other propagation issues can be emailed to the author at tad at ssc.com, or via the packet radio address at KT7H at N7DUO.WA.USA.NOAM.
Sunspot Numbers for April 11 through 17 were 0, 13, 13, 0, 0, 12 and 14, with a mean of 7.4. 10.7 cm flux was 68, 68.3, 68.8, 68.7, 68, 68.3 and 69.3, with a mean of 68.5.