ZCZC AP06
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6 ARLP006
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA February 7, 1997
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP006
ARLP006 Propagation de KT7H
Solar activity rose a bit this week, but only slightly, with the solar flux above the 90 day average of 77 for three days. Average sunspot numbers were almost three times the average for the previous week. Geomagnetic activity was slightly lower.
The geomagnetic field became disturbed a couple of days before this reporting period (on January 28) because of a high speed solar windstream from a coronal hole on the Sun. This caused a geomagnetic storm, more pronounced at higher latitudes, which resulted in the usual absorption of signals and poor conditions.
There is a possibility for some slightly unsettled geomagnetic conditions over the next few days, and again, but a bit more severe around February 22 to 24. Solar flux is expected to drop down to the lower or mid-seventies until February 21, when it is expected to rise again, going above eighty after March 1.
Sunspot Numbers for January 30 through February 5 were 15, 13, 14, 36, 45, 44 and 33 with a mean of 28.6. 10.7 cm flux was 73.6, 72.4, 71.3, 78.4, 79.6, 80.7 and 75.3, with a mean of 75.9. Estimated planetary A indices for the same period were 11, 8, 6, 10, 7, 5, and 7, with a mean of 7.7.
Here are a couple of path projections for this week, from California to Japan and from Ohio to Europe.
From California to Japan, check 80 meters from 0730z to 1530z, 40 meters from 0630z to 1700z, 30 meters around 0430z, 1230z, and 1600z to 1900z, and 20 meters from 2200z to 0130z. 17 meters should be good from 2230z to 0030z and 15 meters around 2300z.
From Ohio to Europe, check 80 meters from 2200z to 0800z, 40 meters from 2100z to 0100z and from 0530z to 0900z, 30 meters from 1400z to 1830z and around 2000z, and 20 meters from 1530z to 1730z.