QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA February 14, 1997
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP007
ARLP007 Propagation de KT7H
Solar activity continues to stay very low. Solar flux slowly drifted down over the past week, with average values almost three points lower than the previous week, and average sunspot numbers down about 15 points.
Geomagnetic disturbances were not down, however, and the planetary A index was above 20 over three days, indicating a geomagnetic storm.
Look for quiet conditions over the coming contest weekend, with no expected geomagnetic disturbances and solar flux remaining in the low seventies. Solar flux is expected to remain in the low seventies over the next few weeks. February 22 through 24 could see a recurrence of geomagnetic activity, and again to a lesser extent around March 5 through 7.
Sunspot Numbers for February 6 through 12 were 35, 38, 11, 11, 0, 0 and 0 with a mean of 13.6. 10.7 cm flux was 74.2, 75.7, 75.2, 73.2, 72.3, 71.1 and 70.9, with a mean of 73.2. Estimated planetary A indices for the same period were 9, 3, 21, 16, 21, 20, and 7, with a mean of 13.9.
Here are some contest weekend path projections from the center of the United States.
To Europe, check 80 meters from 2330z to 0730z, 40 from 2230z to 0230z and 0730z to 0930z, and 20 from 1530z to 1830z.
To Africa, check 80 meters from 0000z to 0330z, 40 from 2330z to 0300z and 20 from 1830z to 2130z. There is a chance for a 15 meter opening around 1900z.
To South America, check 80 meters from 0000z to 1000z, 40 from 2330z to 1100z, and 20 from 1500z to 0000z, with the best 20 meter conditions toward the end of the period. Check 15 meters from 1700z to 2030z, and 10 meters has a chance for some propagation around 1900z to 2100z.
To the South Pacific check 80 meters from 1000z to 1330z, 40 from 0930z to 1400z, 20 around 1530z and 15 around 2200z to 2300z.