QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8 ARLP008
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA February 21, 1997
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP008
ARLP008 Propagation de KT7H
Solar activity continues low, with flux values still running lower on every day than the average for the previous 90 days, which dropped this week from 78 to 77. Geomagnetic indices rose on February 17 with estimated planetary K indices as high as five.
Low solar and geomagnetic activity is good news though for the 160 meter contest this weekend. Expect good conditions throughout the contest, with little threat of a geomagnetic upset. For the next few weeks conditions are expected to stay the same, with solar flux in the low to mid seventies.
The latest long term forecast shows the next solar cycle peaking just three years from now. This poses the question--why haven't we seen much activity yet from the new cycle? The projection is based upon previous cycles, and indicates an average sunspot number of 19 for January, and 22 for February, with the number doubling to 44 by July. It also shows solar flux of 77 for January, 80 for February, 84 for March, and 100 by July. Currently it appears that actual conditions are lagging these projections.
Sunspot Numbers for February 13 through 19 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13 and 15 with a mean of 4. 10.7 cm flux was 71.1, 71.3, 71.8, 72, 73.1, 72.9 and 72, with a mean of 72. Estimated planetary A indices for the same period were 4, 5, 4, 8, 17, 7, and 3, with a mean of 6.9.