QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 29 ARLP029
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA July 18, 1997
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP029
ARLP029 Propagation de K7VVV
Conditions are still poor because of low solar activity. While HF radio enthusiasts can be pleased by the continued stable geomagnetic conditions, any new solar cycle still seems to be stalled. No change is forecast for the next few weeks.
The average solar flux for the previous ninety days has dropped another point this week to 72. This is the second time in July that the ninety day flux average has dropped, and the flux values on each day last week were well below that number.
K8MLV wrote to point out that in propagation bulletin ARLP028 there were a couple of flux values which seemed to vary from the values broadcast by WWV. The solar flux values in this bulletin are from the observatory in Penticton, BC, and another check with the numbers from the observatory agree with the values in ARLP028.
K8MLV also mentioned that the flux value for Saturday, July 12 was the lowest since last October 12, and that CO2KK in Radio Havana Cuba recently speculated on the possibility of a second solar activity minimum before solar cycle 23 takes off.
Jan Alvestad wrote from Norway to tell us about a nice web site he built at http://www.dxlc.com/solar/ which is devoted to sunspots and solar activity. Check it out.
W4AR wrote from Florida to say that during last weekend's VHF contest there was little or no 6 meter activity, which he believes is connected to the low solar activity. N3EG wrote from Washington state to note that there were no sporadic E signals at his QTH during the same contest, just a few meteor bursts.
Sunspot Numbers for July 10 through 16 were 17, 0, 0, 0, 11, 0 and 0 with a mean of 4. 10.7 cm flux was 68.5, 68.6, 67.4, 67.1, 68.1, 69.2 and 69.6, with a mean of 68.4, and estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 4, 4, 3, 14, and 5, with a mean of 6.