ARLP046 Propagation de K7VVV:
November 14, 1997

ZCZC AP46
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46 ARLP046
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA November 14, 1997
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP046 ARLP046 Propagation de K7VVV

Last week's major geomagnetic storm was really confined to Friday, when the global A index went clear to 45, and global K indices went as high as seven. This was from the Tuesday, November 4 solar flare, and the later flare on Thursday didn't seem to have an effect, indicating that the energy was probably aimed away from Earth. Protons from these disturbances produce an effect a few days later, and the Thursday event didn't seem to bother conditions over the weekend. On Saturday the global K index dropped down to zero.

Solar flux backed off also, and was soon below 90. It perked up again to the low nineties on Tuesday. Watch for solar flux to rise to 92 or 94 this weekend, then above 100 around November 26, above 110 by month's end, and below 100 by December 4. Unstable geomagnetic conditions may return around November 20-23 and December 3 and 4. This is based on the last solar rotation, and can change at any time. For instance, the last 27 day outlook from NOAA released on November 11 showed flux values around 80 from November 14-20, but then new regions 8106, 8107 and 8108 appeared on the solar surface, and now forecasts are looking up.

Expect good conditions during the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes this weekend.

Sunspot Numbers for November 6 through 12 were 60, 60, 61, 40, 28, 28 and 26 with a mean of 43.3. 10.7 cm flux was 105.3, 94.4, 89.6, 86.4, 89.4, 91.5 and 87.2, with a mean of 92, and estimated planetary A indices were 12, 45, 4, 9, 10, 6, and 3, with a mean of 12.7.

Here are some projections for domestic paths for the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes this weekend:

• From California to the Northeast United States check 80 meters 2330- 1300z, 40 meters 2200-0100z and 0500-0930z and 1130-1500z, 20 meters 1500-2100z, and possibly 15 meters around 1800-1900z.
• From Southeast United States to California check 80 meters 2330- 1300z, 40 meters around the clock, with the strongest signals from 0030-0200z and 0600-1000z, 20 meters 1530-2130z and possibly 15 meters 1800-1900z.
• From Ohio to Texas check 80 meters 2100-1430z, 40 meters very strong around the clock with the strongest signals from 2330-0100z and 0600-0900z. Check 20 meters 1430-2130z. 15 meters may open around 1800z.
• From Seattle to the central U.S. check 80 meters 2230-1530z, 40 meters around the clock, with strongest signals 0030-0300z and 0700-1330z, and 20 meters 1600-2330z. 15 meters may open 1800- 2130z and looks promising around 1930z, and 10 meters might open 1900-2000z.
• From central U.S. to Hawaii, check 80 meters 0300-1430z, 40 meters 0200-1530z, 20 meters around 1600-2330z and 0130-0230z. 15 meters looks very good 1730-2330z, and 10 meters from 1900-2030z.