QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA January 9, 1998
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP002
ARLP002 Propagation de K7VVV
Solar activity was down over the past week, with average sunspot numbers about half what they were for the last week of 1997, and average solar flux down almost nine points. In addition there was a nasty geomagnetic disturbance on January 7 when the planetary A index shot up to 29. This was believed to have been caused by a coronal mass ejection from the sun on January 3. Average solar flux for the previous 90 days remained at 95, and the daily flux numbers were below this value over four out of seven days this week.
Currently the solar disk is devoid of any activity, but a small active region should rotate into view over the weekend. Solar flux is expected to remain in the mid-eighties until January 17 when it rises above 90 again. Flux levels should increase above 100 around January 22, then back below 90 around the end of the month. Over this weekend for the Japan International DX CW Contest look for solar flux around 84 with quiet geomagnetic conditions.
With winter upon us and lackluster solar activity look for less performance on the higher frequencies and to the low bands for DX. Ten meters will probably not pick up until this spring, or perhaps in the fall.
Sunspot Numbers for January 1 through 7 were 55, 50, 31, 30, 22, 23 and 0 with a mean of 30.1. 10.7 cm flux was 101.6, 101, 101.1, 90.7, 89.3, 87 and 84.9, with a mean of 93.7, and estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 4, 4, 2, 14, and 29, with a mean of 8.9.
Here are some path projections to Japan for the DX contest this weekend.