QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 20 ARLP020
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA May 15, 1998
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de K7VVV
Conditions certainly calmed down this week. Not only were solar flux and sunspot numbers off, but the most disturbed day, May 8, only had a planetary A index of 20.
W9JJ wrote to remind us that during recent geomagnetic storms that wiped out HF there were many interesting periods of propagation on VHF due to auroral activity. He also passed along some late word from WB2WPA in Florida about 2 meter signals from South Dakota and Minnesota, and also a report from N0JK about 2 meter exchanges between the Midwest and Cuba,
For the next few days no geomagnetic disruptions are forecast, with A indexes over the weekend around five. The solar flux for Friday through Sunday is expected to be 115, 115 and 110.
Solar flux may dip below 100 around May 18 or 19, and we could have geomagnetic disturbances around May 22 to 24. May 23 should see solar flux above 110 again and above 120 around May 25 and peaking just below 130 by the end of the month.
Sunspot Numbers for May 7 through 13 were 82, 81, 56, 61, 72, 90 and 90 with a mean of 76. 10.7 cm flux was 123.3, 118, 110.7, 107.2, 108, 112.1 and 116.6, with a mean of 113.7, and estimated planetary A indices were 13, 20, 12, 11, 13, 19, and 6, with a mean of 13.4.