QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024
Seattle, WA June 12, 1998
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP024
ARLP024 Propagation de K7VVV
Solar activity was up again last week. Average solar flux for the previous 90 days rose one point to 110, and flux values were above this level on every day, which indicates an upward trend. Geomagnetic indices showed fairly unsettled conditions, particularly on June 7 when planetary K indices went as high as four and five.
The predicted solar flux for this weekend, Friday through Sunday, is 115, 120 and 122, and the planetary A index is expected to be 10, 8 and 12. Beyond that the solar flux is may peak for the short term around 126 on June 16 or 17, then drop below 120 by June 20, below 115 by June 24, and bottom out above 110 for June 26 through July 6. Somewhat unsettled geomagnetic conditions may appear again June 19-21 and July 2-4. Old region 8226 appeared to be growing as it left the west limb of the sun near the end of May, and it could produce some flares between June 12-25.
Dr. Dick Altrock of the USAF released a statement in conjunction with the National Solar Observatory about the peak of this solar cycle. He is looking at long-term variation of solar emission features that move toward the solar poles prior to solar cycle maximum. Since this emission feature already appeared over a year ago at 55 degrees north latitude and is continuing to move toward the poles, the solar maximum earlier believed to be slated for 2000 is now predicted for next year.
>From VHF reports, GJ4ICD reports fantastic conditions on six meters, and N7EIJ near Portland, Oregon reported working N7ML in Montana on aurora and backscatter on the same band over the weekend. On the same date VE6XT in Calgary reported incredible auroral E conditions on six with stations all across Canada and Alaska. Also on Saturday K2SPO in New York worked EH7KW (Spain) on six.
N1BUG has a wonderful site on the web for monitoring auroras that can be found on the web via a couple of URLs, including http://www.mint.net/~n1bug/prop/aumon/aufr.html and also http://www.qsl.net/n1bug/prop/aumon/aufr.html.
Sunspot Numbers for June 4 through June 10 were 92, 99, 110, 96, 104, 101 and 103 with a mean of 100.7. 10.7 cm flux was 111.7, 115, 115.1, 113, 116.9, 112.3 and 112.4, with a mean of 113.8, and estimated planetary A indices were 12, 13, 14, 18, 12, 10, and 15, with a mean of 13.4.