January 8, 1999

ZCZC AP02

QST de W1AW

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002

From Tad Cook, K7VVV

Seattle, WA January 8, 1999

To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP002

ARLP002 Propagation de K7VVV

Solar activity was down this week, which was no surprise, since on one day the previous week the solar flux reached a new high for the current cycle. But the drop in solar was quicker than expected. Last week's bulletin projected flux values above 150 until January 12, but on Monday through Thursday of this week flux values were 146.9, 136.5, 125.8, and 115.1. This represents a drop in flux values of nearly seventy points in a little over a week.

For this weekend, the projected flux values for Friday through Sunday are 115, 120 and 120, with a planetary A index of 12, 12 and 8. At least while solar activity has been dropping, there haven't been any disturbed days from solar flares or coronal holes.

Beyond this weekend look for a rising solar flux, going above 130 by January 16 and to 150 around January 20. Conditions are currently expected to peak around January 24 or 25 with solar flux under 155. This will be 27 days, or one complete rotation of the sun after the recent high in solar flux for this cycle.

This week had some interesting VHF news. N5JHV in New Mexico worked several VK2 stations on 6 meters on January 2 after a long opening to the west coast of Mexico. On the same day CO2OJ worked a number of U.S. stations on the same band.

Sunspot Numbers for December 31 through January 6 were 135, 121, 107, 113, 94, 87 and 70 with a mean of 103.9. 10.7 cm flux was 174.6, 167.2, 160.1, 154.5, 146.9, 136.5 and 125.8, with a mean of 152.2, and estimated planetary A indices were 3, 5, 7, 4, 7, 8 and 9, with a mean of 6.1.

Here are some path projections to Japan for the JA International DX CW Test this weekend.

**From Seattle**, check 80 meters around 0600-1800z, with best conditions around 0830-1000z. 40 meters should be good from 0600-1900z. Check 20 meters from 2100-0130z, and 15 meters from 2230-0030z. The best bet for 10 meters is 2300-2330z.**From Los Angeles**, check 80 meters around 0700-1600z, 40 meters at 0530-1700, 20 meters at 2100-0300z, 15 meters from 2200-0130z, and 10 meters around 2230-0030z.**From the center of the USA**, 80 meters looks good from 0730-1430z, 40 meters around 0630-1530z, 20 meters from 2100-0030z, and 10 and 15 meters around 2230z.**From Texas**, 80 meters should open 0730-1400z, 40 meters around 0700-1500z, 20 meters at 2100-0100z, and 15 meters around 2200-2330z.**From Ohio**, check 80 meters at 0700-1400z, 40 meters at 0630-1500z, 20 meters around 1530-1730z and 2100-2300z, and 15 meters around 2200z.**From Boston**, 80 meters should be open 0730-1300z, 40 meters at 2030-2300z and 0630-1430z, and 20 meters around 1530-1700z and 2100-2200z.