QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA January 8, 1999
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP002
ARLP002 Propagation de K7VVV
Solar activity was down this week, which was no surprise, since on one day the previous week the solar flux reached a new high for the current cycle. But the drop in solar was quicker than expected. Last week's bulletin projected flux values above 150 until January 12, but on Monday through Thursday of this week flux values were 146.9, 136.5, 125.8, and 115.1. This represents a drop in flux values of nearly seventy points in a little over a week.
For this weekend, the projected flux values for Friday through Sunday are 115, 120 and 120, with a planetary A index of 12, 12 and 8. At least while solar activity has been dropping, there haven't been any disturbed days from solar flares or coronal holes.
Beyond this weekend look for a rising solar flux, going above 130 by January 16 and to 150 around January 20. Conditions are currently expected to peak around January 24 or 25 with solar flux under 155. This will be 27 days, or one complete rotation of the sun after the recent high in solar flux for this cycle.
This week had some interesting VHF news. N5JHV in New Mexico worked several VK2 stations on 6 meters on January 2 after a long opening to the west coast of Mexico. On the same day CO2OJ worked a number of U.S. stations on the same band.
Sunspot Numbers for December 31 through January 6 were 135, 121, 107, 113, 94, 87 and 70 with a mean of 103.9. 10.7 cm flux was 174.6, 167.2, 160.1, 154.5, 146.9, 136.5 and 125.8, with a mean of 152.2, and estimated planetary A indices were 3, 5, 7, 4, 7, 8 and 9, with a mean of 6.1.
Here are some path projections to Japan for the JA International DX CW Test this weekend.