QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 29 ARLP029
From Lee R. Wical, KH6BZF
Kane'Ohe, HI July 16, 1999
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP029
ARLP029 Propagation de KH6BZF
Average solar flux and sunspot numbers were down this week as compared to last week. But this is not surprising considering last week's higher solar numbers. The average sunspot number dropped and average solar flux units were down as well.
The forecast for the next three days, Friday through Sunday, is a solar flux of 130, 140 and possibly 145 and planetary A index of five for all three days. Beyond this weekend look for possible increasing solar flux levels. Solar flux levels are expected to continue to rise until a cyclic 27.5-day peak centered on/about 25th July around the 200+ level. One forecast earlier this week from the NOAA Space Environment Service Center in Boulder, CO, has solar flux peaking around 200 from July 22 through 27, but a later more liberal projection suggests a peak above 200+ as mentioned above.
Current summer conditions in North America affect the 160 and 80 meter bands. They are noisy because of seasonal atmospherics in the Northern hemisphere due to transcontinental thunderstorms. Check your local TV and national cable weather channels for additional up to the minute data. However, QRM/QRN static levels from these storms can be a precursor to low band beacons. Meanwhile, 20 meters is open late into the evening and toward sunrise on the eastern end of the east-west DX path. Conditions on 10 and 12 meters will tend to get better for long distance communications as the days grow shorter and we progress toward the fall equinox on September 22, 1999.
West coast stations again have been reporting VHF signals from KH6HME's 50/144/432MHz beacons in Hawaii via tropospheric ducting as recent as July 15. Check the KH6FOO web page at http://hiloweb.com/kh6foo/duct.html
KH6FOO's web site reports on propagation modes, frequencies, etc. Click on the Post Ducting Report button to see current data therein. VHF West coasters report KH6HME's beacons being heard as early as July 10th. Other 6 meter North America transcontinental reports have been received as well. June's E openings were exciting to old timers and newly licensed Amateurs alike.
Sunspot numbers for July 8th through 15th were, 143, 170, 174, 202, 199, 188, 120 and 109 with a mean of 163.1, down from last week's mean of 204. The 10.7 cm flux levels for the same period were, 149, 151, 156, 153, 154, 144, 130 and 130 with a mean level of 145.8, down from last week's mean level of 180.8, and estimated planetary A indices were 08, 06, 05, 06, 14, 06, 06 and 10 with a mean average 8.87, a decline from last week's average of 10.
The DX path projections for this week are from Jacobs Field in Cleveland, Ohio:
The current forecast is for low to moderate levels of solar activity with some occasional isolated flares that may occur. There may be a slight chance of an M-class flare to occur during the next week. However, the Geomagnetic Field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a coronal mass ejection expected at any time. Flux levels are expected to rise this coming week. High to above normal conditions are expected. But one can ever tell about two things. Our Sun, our nearest star, and the stockmarket. There is no correlation whatsoever between the two, except the unexpected.
The last solar eclipse of the millennium occurs next month on August 11. A day later, on the 12th of August, the Perseids Meteor show is to peak. The last meteor shower of the millennium will be the Leonids Meteor Shower occurring on the nights of the 16, 17 and 18th of November when the Moon sets just before the prime viewing hours.
A Note to all: Thanks to K7VVV for allowing me to substitute for him as business called him away from his propagation ''cat bird seat'' duties on short notice. Aloha.