QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11 ARLP011
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA March 17, 2000
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP011
ARLP011 Propagation de K7VVV
Average solar flux was down slightly and average sunspot numbers rose over the past week. There were no really disturbed days, but the geomagnetic field was active on March 12.
The spring equinox is coming up this Monday, and this is always an exciting time for HF operators. Conditions should be good this season with the rising solar flux.
Solar flux has been declining this week, and is expected to reach a short term minimum near 170 from March 19 to 21. Flux values should quickly rise to another short term peak that is expected to be very broad. Solar flux should be around 220 from March 25 through April 4.
The projected solar flux for the next five days, Friday through Tuesday, is 180, 175, 170, 170 and 170. Planetary A index for these same days is expected to be 8, 8, 8, 8 and 12. Upcoming dates that may be disturbed are March 22-24, March 31 and April 1, and April 18 and 19.
Chip, K7JA, wrote to alert readers to fantastic conditions on 10 meters, including long path propagation. He is in Southern California, and writes ''You might want to mention in your column the tremendous LP openings on 10 meters lately. Saturday night of ARRL Phone was one, and last night (perhaps 0300z to 0800z at least, out here, earlier on Right Coast) was a doozy. The band started over the top into UA9, etc., and about 0300z went to Long Path. Loud UA9s, 3B8FG, JY9NX, A41LZ, A45XR, 5Z4WI, SU9ZZ, and stations from literally everywhere in Europe (like PA, DL, OH etc.) filled the band. I gave up at midnight, but the band was still hopping. The East Coast got into this one, as did stations in Texas and other Midwestern areas. I saw a number of spots by W3UR. Basically, about 7 PM is a good time to be watchful to the south, beaming about 90 degrees. Last night's opening, however, had a broad peak into Europe, maybe as far up as 220 degrees or so. Guess we finally have a sunspot cycle!''
Sunspot numbers for March 9 through 15 were 225, 231, 178, 188, 172, 193 and 167 with a mean of 193.4. 10.7 cm flux was 205.8 203.4, 203.2, 203.2, 188.1, 182.6 and 177.8, with a mean of 194.9, and estimated planetary A indices were 5, 10, 12, 19, 4, 6 and 3, with a mean of 8.4.
Path projections for this weekend are from Elko, Nevada.