ARLP043 Propagation de K7VVV:
October 27, 2000

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA October 27, 2000
To all radio amateurs

ARLP043 Propagation de K7VVV

Average solar flux for the past week was exactly the same as the previous week. It was 160.9 for the past week, and 160.2 for the week previous. Average sunspot numbers dropped about ten points.

Solar flux is rising, and is expected to peak on November 2 around 190. But the main interest among many radio amateurs is the forecast for this weekend, when the CQ Worldwide DX Phone Contest commences. Unfortunately, on October 25 a full halo coronal mass ejection was detected blasting away from the sun, and effects may be felt this weekend. The predicted planetary A index for Friday through Monday is 10, 15, 15 and 12. This does not signal terrible conditions, but the outlook for Saturday and Sunday is for unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions.

Solar flux for the same four days is predicted at 175, 175, 180 and 180. After the November 2 peak in activity, solar flux is expected to bottom out around 155 on November 6 or 7.

For this weekend, we are offering three path projections, which are generalized from the East Coast, central and West Coast of the United states. The target areas are simplified to Germany, Brazil, Australia and Japan. The projections are restricted to the five HF bands on which the contest operates.

Sunspot numbers for October 19 through 25 were 128, 144, 166, 117, 143, 99 and 112 with a mean of 129.9. 10.7 cm flux was 157.8, 160.7, 158, 160.2, 166.5, 159.2 and 164, with a mean of 160.9, and estimated planetary A indices were 9, 4, 4, 13, 15, 11 and 8 with a mean of 9.1.