QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA January 12, 2001
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP002
ARLP002 Propagation de K7VVV
Last week's propagation bulletin erroneously reported, along with some other sources, that the Japan International CW DX Contest was the following weekend. It actually occurs this coming weekend, on January 13 and 14.
Average sunspot numbers were up over the past week, and solar flux was down, probably reaching a low on Wednesday. The predicted solar flux for January 12-15 is 170, 175, 180 and 185. Solar flux is expected to peak below 200 around January 17, but not drop back to 180 until January 25. Very quiet geomagnetic conditions are forecast through the end of the month, the exception being this weekend, with a slightly unsettled planetary A index around 12. Otherwise look for A indices in the low single digits.
The unsettled conditions are predicted because of a full-halo coronal mass ejection on Wednesday, but the effect is uncertain.
Scott Craig has made some slight modifications to his solar data plotting software, and here at K7VVV it now seems to work with Windows 2000. Download the new version 3.09w from http://www.craigcentral.com.
Since the JA DX contest mentioned last week is actually running this weekend, here are some path projections updated from last week. All paths are to Japan on 160, 80 and 40 meters.
Sunspot numbers for January 4 through 10 were 180, 158, 172, 183, 167, 140 and 139 with a mean of 162.7. 10.7 cm flux was 174.6, 176.3, 179.4, 176.7, 167.1, 166.3 and 162.8, with a mean of 171.9, and estimated planetary A indices were 10, 6, 6, 5, 10, 5 and 4 with a mean of 6.6.