February 15, 2002

ZCZC AP07

QST de W1AW

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007

From Tad Cook, K7VVV

Seattle, WA February 15, 2002

To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP007

ARLP007 Propagation de K7VVV

Average daily solar flux and sunspot numbers both declined over the past week. Solar flux reached a low around 192 around February 7 and 8, but then jumped higher near 217 over the weekend.

The best current guess is for flux values to remain between 190 and 195 from now through Tuesday, then rise to a peak near 240 or 245 around February 24-28.

On February 14 around 0250z a coronal mass ejection headed toward earth, and this should cause geomagnetic upset around February 16- 17, just in time for the ARRL CW DX Contest. This isn't good news for contesters, although it is possible that the effects could be mild. If not, then expect greater absorption, especially on the polar paths. There is also the possibility of a visible aurora, especially in northern latitudes.

Last week's bulletin mentioned the piece by K9LA explaining the numbers in this bulletin as well as some basic propagation concepts. This now has a home on the ARRL web site at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html .

Here are some path projections for the DX contest this weekend from various spots around the U.S. This is a best guess for band openings, assuming geomagnetic indices don't go really high.

**From Seattle**to Europe, 80 meters 0200-0700z, 40 meters 0000-0830z, 20 meters 0530-1300 and 1430-0130z, 15 meters 1630-1900z, 10 meters possibly around 1600-1800z. To South America, 80 meters 0300-1000z, 40 meters 0100-1000z, 20 meters 2330-1100z, 15 meters 1430-0330z, 10 meters 1530-0130z. To Australia, 80 meters 1000-1530z, 40 meters 0930-1600z, 20 meters 0730-1800z, 15 meters 2000-2100 and 0400-0600z, 10 meters 2200-0400z. To Japan, 80 meters 0830-1600z, 40 meters 0730-1630z, 20 meters 1630-0600z (with lower signal strength around 0130z), 15 meters 2130-0330z, 10 meters 2230-0130z.**From California**to Europe, 80 meters 0130-0730z, 40 meters 0100- 0900z, 20 meters 2200-0530 and 1330-1630z, 15 meters 1530-1930z, 10 meters 1630-1800z. To South America, 80 meters 0130-1000z, 40 meters 0030-1030z, 20 meters 2330-1130z, 15 meters 1430-0600z, 10 meters 1500-0200z. To Australia, 80 meters 0930-1500z, 40 meters 0900-1600z, 20 meters 0730-1700z, 15 meters 2000-2100 and 0430-1100z and possibly around 1600z, 10 meters 2200-0430z. To Japan, 80 meters 0830-1530z, 40 meters 0700-1630z, 20 meters open all hours, strongest 0600-1200z and 1400-1600z, weakest 2230-0100z and 1230-1330z.**From Texas**to Europe, 80 meters 0000-0730z, 40 meters 2330-0800z, 20 meters 1200-1530z and 2100-2330z, 15 meters 1400-2000z, 10 meters 1530-1800z. To South America, 80 meters 0000-1000z, 40 meters 0000-1030z, 20 meters 2200-1230z, 15 meters 1200-1400 and 1830-0700z, 10 meters 1330-0130z. To Australia, 80 meters 0930-1400z, 40 meters 0930-1400z, 20 meters 0730- 1530z, 15 meters 0530-1030 and 1430-1600z, 10 meters 2100-0330z. To Japan, 80 meters 0830-1300z, 40 meters 0800-1400z, 20 meters 1300-1630 and 0430-0730z, 15 meters 2100-0300z, 10 meters 2200-0100z.**From Northern Alabama**near Huntsville, to Europe 80 meters 2300-0800z (strongest 0230-0530z), 40 meters 2130-0930z (best 0030- 0630z), 20 meters 1200-0200z (best 2200-0200z), 15 meters 1300-2100z, 10 meters 1430-1900z. To South American, 80 meters 0000-1000z (best 0230-0900z), 40 meters 2330-1030z (best 0030-0930z), 20 meters 2130-1100z, 15 meters 0200-1200z, 10 meters 1300-0030z. To Australia, 80 meters 0930-1300z, 40 meters 0900-1400z, 20 meters 0730-1530z, 15 meters 1400-1630 and possibly 0200-0900z, 10 meters 2200-0200z. To Japan, 80 meters 0800-1230z, 40 meters 0800-1300z, 20 meters 1230-1830 and 0300-0530z, 15 meters 2100-0200z, 10 meters 2200-0000z.**From South Florida**to Europe, 80 meters 2330-0730z, 40 meters 2230-0830z, 20 meters 0700-0800, 0930-1300 and 1930-2330z, 15 meters 1230-2000z, 10 meters 1400-1800z. To South America, 80 meters 2300-1000z, 40 meters 2230-1030z, 20 meters 2030-1200z, 15 meters 1200-0600z (best 2230-0130z), 10 meters 1230- 0030z. To Australia, 80 meters 0930-1200z, 40 meters 0900- 1300z, 20 meters 0730-1430z, 15 meters 0500-0830 and 1300-1530z, 10 meters 0000-0230z. To Japan, 80 meters 0830-1200z, 40 Meters 0800-1300z, 20 meters 0500-1430z, 15 meters 2130-0200z, 10 meters 2230-0000z.**From Ohio**to Europe, 80 meters 2200-0800z, 40 meters 2100-0930z, 20 meters 1300-0100z (stronger later in that period), 15 Meters 1330-2030z, 10 meters 1530-1830z. To South America, 80 meters 2330-1000z (best 0200-0830z), 40 meters 2300-1030z (best 0000-0930z), 20 meters 2130-1200z (best 2300-1000z), 15 meters 1200-1430 and 1800-0130z, 10 meters 1300-0000z. To Australia, 80 meters 1030-1300z, 40 meters 0930-1400z, 20 Meters 1230-1530z, 15 meters 1430-1600z, 10 meters 2200-0000z. To Japan, 80 meters 0800-1300z, 40 meters 0730-1300z, 20 meters 0700-1400 and 2130-0030z, 15 meters 2130-0030z, 10 meters around 2200z.

Sunspot numbers for February 7 through 13 were 178, 229, 225, 205, 206, 182 and 158 with a mean of 197.6. 10.7 cm flux was 191.7, 191.5, 199.4, 216.5, 201.7, 208.3 and 203.5, with a mean of 201.8, and estimated planetary A indices were 14, 10, 9, 8, 13, 6 and 10 with a mean of 10.