QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA June 7, 2002
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7VVV
Sunspot numbers and solar flux were both lower this week. The average daily sunspot count dropped nearly 23 points, and average daily solar flux was down over 11 points. Solar flux is expected to drop down to 150 on Friday and Saturday, and then rise to near 185 around June 20-25.
Last year during this same week the numbers were all lower. This week's sunspot average is over 66 points higher and the average solar flux is up by over 29 points compared to one year ago.
The average daily sunspot number for the month of May was 204.1, and the average solar flux was 178.4. The sunspot count for May was the highest monthly average for 2002. Average monthly sunspot numbers for January through May were 189, 194.5, 153.1, 194.9 and 204.1. Average solar flux for January through May was 227.3, 205, 179.5, 189.8 and 178.4. Cycle 23 is still holding up.
A coronal mass ejection on June 5 is expected to cause some geomagnetic upset on Friday. Currently the projected rise in planetary A index is moderate.
Propagation beacons are a good way to check the bands quickly, and find out where in the world propagation might be good toward. Check out the G3USF list of propagation beacons at http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/por/28.htm. 10-meter beacons seem to be the most popular and prolific, and of course the list shows the Northern California DX Foundation's 20-meter worldwide beacon network, but there are also quite a number beacons on 12, 15 and 17 meters.
Sunspot numbers for May 30 through June 5 were 190, 202, 192, 189, 208, 217 and 218, with a mean of 202.3. 10.7 cm flux was 180.1, 181.9, 178.8, 174.9, 170.4, 169.8, and 159, with a mean of 173.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 6, 8, 16, 12, 17, and 10, with a mean of 11.1.