QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA July 3, 2002
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP027
ARLP027 Propagation de K7VVV
This is a short bulletin this week because of the Independence Day holiday. On July 12 we will be back with the sunspot, solar flux and A index data for two weeks.
Conditions remain quiet, with solar flux dipping below 140 and sunspot numbers below 100 around June 27 and 28. The outlook still appears flat for the near term, with solar flux around 140-145 for the foreseeable future.
Because June has ended, we may now look at some monthly and quarterly averages.
The average daily sunspot numbers for the last six quarters, from January 1, 2001 to June 30, 2002 were 147.3, 164.8, 170.4, 198.1, 178.3 and 165.3. The average daily solar flux for the same quarters was 164.4, 166.7, 175.5, 219.1, 203.9 and 156.4. As you can see, solar activity has declined this quarter.
The average daily sunspot number per month for January through June was 189, 194.5, 153.1, 144.4, 204.1 and 146. Average daily solar flux values for the same months were 227.3, 205, 179.5, 141.1, 178.4 and 148.7. While the trend is down, it looks like May wasn't a bad month.
KC0DXK wrote in to reminisce about 6 meter contacts in 1998, and said he looks forward to the next high sunspot period. When might the next solar cycle peak be? It is quite a ways off in the future. Current projections (which you can see at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1397.pdf ) show the minimum between the cycles around the end of 2006. The next peak is so far off that it isn't shown in this table, but 11 years from Spring 2000 is 2011. Quite some time from now.
Last week's bulletin mused about spaceweather.com being a dot-com instead of dot-gov, and AA7VL pointed out that the Spaceweather site isn't really sponsored by NASA. It takes lots of data from NASA, but it is put together by Dr. Tony Phillips, and isn't actually a government site.