ZCZC AP50
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50 ARLP050
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 3, 2004
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP050
ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA
Sunspot numbers and geomagnetic activity were both up slightly over the past week. Average daily sunspot numbers were low, rising from 50 to 55.1 since the week before. Average daily solar flux rose from 103.8 to 110.9 over the same period.
During November the average daily sunspot numbers were 70.5. This is slightly lower than the 77.9 average for October.
Geomagnetic indices were unsettled over the past week, with daily A indices for both mid-latitude and high latitude in the mid to high teens.
Over the next few days the solar flux should decline. The predicted daily solar flux for Friday December 3 through Monday December 6 is predicted to be 105, 100, 100 and 95. Solar flux should reach a near term low around December 8-9 at 90. Geomagnetic conditions should remain quiet until December 6, when the predicted planetary A index is 20. This may be far enough off to have good quiet conditions for the ARRL 160-Meter CW Contest this weekend.
Gary Johnson, K5SWW wrote to mention an interesting propagation condition he monitored this weekend toward the end of the CQ World Wide CW DX Contest. From 2100-2200z, 10 meter CW signals from Scandinavia were heard quite strong at his home in Paradise, Texas, which is northwest of Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas. Some were quite strong and a little raspy. He notes that it was dark in Scandinavia, and he was surprised to hear their signals on a daylight band. Did anyone else experience this?
If you would like to comment or have a tip, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.
For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html.
Sunspot numbers for November 25 through December 1 were 61, 61, 64, 66, 40, 42 and 52 with a mean of 55.1. 10.7 cm flux was 109.4, 111.1, 110.3, 112.8, 111.4, 110.6 and 111, with a mean of 110.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 20, 13, 10, 14, 15, 15 and 13 with a mean of 14.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 19, 16, 10, 16, 20, 16 and 11, with a mean of 15.4.