QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9 ARLP009
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA March 2, 1996
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP009
ARLP009 Propagation de KT7H
This bulletin was delayed this week due to problems getting data from NOAA.
Solar activity continues to be extremely low. We have experienced extended periods of no sunspots at all, and it looks like 1996 will certainly be the year of the quiet Sun for cycle 22. Current projections show the sunspot minimum occurring this year, with the minimum solar flux almost a year from now. After the minimum, activity should begin to climb rapidly, so within a few years even 10 meters will be exciting again.
Currently conditions on 80 and 160 meters are good, especially with the quiet geomagnetic conditions we are experiencing. Conditions on the higher frequencies should improve soon not because of solar activity, but due to seasonal variations as we head into Spring.
Look for solar flux to level off slightly to around 70 or below in the next few days, and then back up to around 75 by March 21. Quiet geomagnetic conditions should prevail, but expect some moderate disturbances around March 10 and 11 and again around the 23rd.
Sunspot Numbers for February 22 through 28 were 26, 12, 29, 29, 26, 11 and 11, with a mean of 20.6. 10.7 cm flux was 71.6, 73.9, 75.7, 73.3, 72.3, 72 and 72.2, with a mean of 73.