QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 18 ARLP018
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA May 3, 1996
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP018
ARLP018 Propagation de KT7H
Every day last week except for April 28 had a sunspot number of zero. The solar flux on each day was below the average value for the previous 90 days, which was 71 at the start of the week and 70 at the end. All of this shows a continued downward trend in solar activity.
Because activity is so flat, this makes it difficult to predict changes in activity over the next few weeks, since this is always based on a solar rotation with activity recurring every 28.5 days.
Solar flux is expected to increase slowly to above 70 around May 6, peak around the mid-seventies around May 11, and drop below 70 after May 18. Look for disturbed conditions around May 11 to 16, with the worst conditions centered around May 14 and 15.
Because of lengthening days, low frequency DX is declining, and 20 meters should be better for DX, even with the low solar activity.
Sunspot Numbers for April 25 through May 1 were 0, 0, 0, 13, 0, 0 and 0, with a mean of 1.9. 10.7 cm flux was 67.8, 68.2, 68.2, 67.7, 68.4, 68.5 and 67.9, with a mean of 68.1.