QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 20 ARLP020
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA May 17, 1996
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de KT7H
Solar activity was up a bit last week, with the average sunspot number about 20 points higher than the week previous, and solar flux up less than three points. The most disturbed days were May 13 and 14, when the A index was 13 and 15. Otherwise, conditions were stable.
Last Fall we were excited to report sightings of the first sunspots from the upcoming Solar Cycle 23. Now the NOAA Space Environment Service Center has changed its report and is not expecting the new cycle to begin until later this year.
Watch for the solar flux to dip below 70 after May 19, then above 70 after June 2, peaking in the mid seventies around June 9. Conditions should be very stable from May 21 to 27, then an active geomagnetic field is expected around June 7 and 10.
Sunspot Numbers for May 9 through 15 were 17, 33, 53, 35, 38, 30 and 26, with a mean of 33.1. 10.7 cm flux was 76, 77.5, 76.5, 73.6, 72.7, 71.8 and 70.9, with a mean of 74.1.
This week we have a path prediction to Midway Island from the East Coast, middle, and West Coast of the United States.
From the East Coast, 80 meters should be good from 0630 to 1030z, 40 meters from 0530 to 1100, 30 meters from 0430 to 1230, 20 meters from 0130 to 0630 and again around 1200.
From the middle of the continental United States check 80 meters from 0630 to 1130z, 40 meters from 0530 to 1230, 30 meters from 0400 to 1400 and 20 meters from 0200 to 0700.
From the West Coast check 80 meters from 0600 to 1400z, 40 meters from 0500 to 1500, and 30 meters from 0230 to 1730. 20 meters should be open except from 1100 to 1400, with the best propagation around 0600 to 0830 and around 1600. 17 meters looks good around 1900 to 0730, with best signals around 0500.